The upcoming Chinese New Year on Jan. 29 could trigger a 20% increase in the value of Bitcoin, the world’s top cryptocurrency, according to crypto financial services firm Matrixport.

“Bitcoin has delivered positive returns during the Chinese New Year in 11 of the past 12 years, resulting in a statistically impressive 83% success rate (hit ratio) for generating gains during this period,” Matrixport said in a new assessment.

Bitcoin's jump in value is strongly linked to the number of users, the company said: “As a network-driven currency, Bitcoin’s price growth is fueled by the expansion of its user base — the more people learn about and buy into Bitcoin, the faster its price can rise. Few events rival the impact of the Chinese New Year in driving this network effect, making it a uniquely significant catalyst in Bitcoin’s seasonal performance,” the firm said.

However, this year’s Chinese New Year is happening around the same time as the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where interest rates will be determined.

While analysts largely expect interest rates to stay unchanged — continuing in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% — the crypto market will be observing closely for hints regarding future rate decisions.

Crypto markets are in a “mature phase,” marked by growing utility, adoption, and institutional inflows, which will amplify the effects of future interest rate cuts, according to Rushi Manche, co-founder of the blockchain firm Movement Labs.

“When the Fed cuts rates, crypto tends to thrive — it's pretty straightforward," said Manche. “We’re seeing increased institutional inflows even ahead of the cuts, and once that liquidity starts flowing more freely, digital assets become even more attractive. What’s different this time is the massive growth in actual usage — DeFi hitting record volumes, stablecoins becoming a core part of global payments, and mainstream apps finally delivering real value. While macro trends like rate cuts definitely help drive adoption, it’s the fundamental utility that’s keeping users engaged.”